National Poll: Hillary Clinton 35% Barack Obama 25%
New York Senator Hillary Clinton has a double-digit solid lead over all challengers in her quest for the Democratic Presidential nomination. That’s the second time in three weeks she has enjoyed a solid lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Clinton at 35%, Senator Barack Obama at 25%, and former Senator John Edwards at 18%. That’s the highest level of support we’ve ever measured for Edwards. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is solidly atop the second tier of candidates with 5% support.
Obama continues to hold a slight lead among male voters while Clinton has a huge advantage among women.
In General Election match-ups, Clinton is now essentially even with Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani. She leads all other Republicans including Fred Thompson, John McCain, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Senator Sam Brownback, Senator Chuck Hagel, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
While Clinton appears to have a solid lead, last week her advantage was down to two points over Illinois Senator Barack Obama. In fact, we reported that Clinton and Obama had been within two points of each other during four out of five weeks. While the current numbers show a different top-line result and give the appearance of volatility, the race has assumed a fairly stable dynamic—it’s all about Clinton. The data suggests that the race may ultimately come down to Clinton versus a challenger still to be determined.
First, Clinton’s support has been remarkably stable. For seven of the past eight weeks, her overall level of support has been in the 32% to 35% range. For the last three weeks, she’s been at either 34% or 35%. People know what they like and don’t like about the woman who has been a very visible national figure for 15 years.
Second, while Clinton’s lead has virtually disappeared at times when independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary are included in the total, there has been more stability among core Democrats. Over the past three weeks, her lead among Democrats has not dipped below 8 percentage points.
Third, the volatility of her overall lead has more to do with shifting perceptions of those trying to catch her. Clinton routinely attracts about 20% of the vote among independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. Last week, Obama fared very well among these independent voters and closed the top-line gap with Clinton. This week, while Clinton’s support is steady among independents, Edwards has slightly more support than Obama in this group. Again, Clinton’s numbers are stable while the challengers jockey for position behind her.
Not surprisingly, this suggests that independents are less committed to their choice than core Democrats and that a significant segment of the independent voting population is looking for a Democrat other than Clinton. This puts great significance on the Iowa caucuses which may help clarify who will emerge as Clinton’s major challenger. If the current trends were to continue throughout the Primary season, Clinton would handily win the states allowing only Democrats to vote while her challenger would be more competitive in others.
